Financial Services - Incedo Inc.

COVID-19 pandemic has brought a significant change in the way financial advisors manage their practices, clients and home office communication. Along with the data driven client servicing platforms, smooth transition and good compensation, advisors are closely evaluating their firm’s digital quotient to provide them the service and support in times of such crisis and if not satisfied, may look out options of switching affiliation during or post this crisis.

This pandemic is not a trigger rather has provided additional reasons for advisors to continue to look out for a firm that fits better in their pursuit of growth and better client service.

2018 Fidelity Advisor Movement Study says, 56% of advisors have either switched or considered switching from their existing firms over the last 5 years. financial-planning.com publishes that one fifth of the advisors are at the age of 65 or above and in total around 40% of the advisor may retire over the next decade.

A Cerulli report anticipates transition of almost $70 trillion from baby boomers to Gen X, Gen Y and charity, over the next 25 years. Soon, the reduction in the advisor workforce will create a big advice gap, that the wealth management firms will have to bridge by acquiring and retaining the right set of Advisors

We are observing a changing landscape of advisor and client population, mounting cost pressure due to zero commission fee and the need for scalable operations. COVID-19 has further accentuated the need for the firms to better understand the causal factors for changes in advisor affiliation, to optimize their resources deployed for engaging through the Advisor life cycle. The wealth management firms are increasingly realising that a one fit for all solution may not get optimal returns for them.

Data and Analytics can help the firms segment their advisors better and drive better results throughout the advisor life cycle. Advisor Personalization, using specific data attributes can deliver contextual and targeted engagements and can significantly improve results by dynamically curating contextual & personalized experiences through the advisor life cycle.

A good data driven advisor engagement framework defines and measures key KPIs for each stage of the advisor lifecycle and not only provides insights on key business metrics but also addresses the So What question about those insights. As wealth management firms collect and aggregate data from multiple sources, they are also increasingly using AI/ML based models to further refine advisor servicing.

Let us look at the key goals or business metrics for each stage of the advisor life cycle below and see how data and analytics driven approach helps in each stage of the life cycle.

Prospecting & Acquisition

To attract and convert more high producing advisors, recruitment teams should be tracking key parameters through the prospecting journey of the advisors so that they can identify:

What is the source of most of their prospective advisors; RIA, wirehouses, other BDs
Which competitors are consistently attracting high producing advisor
What % of advisors drop from one funnel stage to another and finally affiliate with the firm
What are the common patterns and characteristics in the recruited advisors

Data driven advisor recruitment process that relies on the feedback loop helps in the early identification of potential converts, thereby balancing the effort spent on recruited vs lost advisors. It also improves the amount and quality of the recruited assets.

For example, analysis of one-year recruitment data of a large wealth management firm revealed that prospects dealing with variable insurance did not eventually join the firm due to the firm’s restricted approved product list. Another insight revealed that prospects with a higher proportion of fee revenue vs the brokerage revenue increased their GDC and AUM at a much faster rate after one year of affiliation. Our Machine Learning Lead Scoring Model used multiple such parameters and scored a recruit’s joining probability and 1-year relationship value to help the firm in precision targeting of high value advisors. These insights allowed the firm to narrow down their target segment of advisors and improved conversion of high value advisors.

Growth & Expansion

A lot of focus during the growth phase of the advisor lifecycle is on tracking business metrics such as TTM GDC, AUM growth, commissions vs Fee splits. The above metrics however have now become table stakes and the advisors expect their firms to provide more meaningful insights and recommendations to improve their practices. Some of the ways, firms are using data to enhance advisor practice are by:

Using data from data aggregators and providing insights on advisor’s wallet share and potential investment opportunities
Providing peer performance comparisons to the advisors
Providing next best action recommendations based on the advisor and client activities

For example, our Recommendation Engine analysed advisor portfolio and trading patterns and determined that most of the high performing advisors showed similar patterns in Investment distribution, asset concentration, churning %. This enabled the engine to provide targeted investment recommendations for the other advisors based on their current investment basket and client risk profile. The wealth management firms are also using advisor segmentation and personalization models based on their clients, Investment patterns, performance, digital engagement, content preference and sending personalized marketing and research content for the advisors based on their personas thus driving better engagement.

Maturity and Retention

It is always more difficult and costly to acquire new advisors as compared to growing with the existing advisor base. The firms pay extra attention to ensure that their top producer’s needs are always met. Yet despite their best efforts, large offices leave their current firms for greener pastures or higher pay-outs. The firms run periodic NPS surveys with their advisor population which indicates overall satisfaction levels of the advisors, but they do not generate any insights for proactive attrition prevention. Data and analytics can help you identify patterns to predict advisor disengagement and do targeted proactive interventions.

For example, our attrition analysis study for a leading wealth manager indicated that a large portion of advisors over the age of 60 were leaving the firm and selling out their business. This enabled the firm to proactively target succession planning programs at this age demographic of advisors. Our analysis also indicated a clear pattern of decreased engagement with the firm’s digital properties and decreasing mail open rate, for the advisors leaving the firm. Based on factors such as age, length of association with the firm, digital engagement trends, outlier detection, our ML based Attrition Propensity model created attrition risk scores for advisors and enabled retention teams to proactively engage more with at-risk advisors and improve retention.

As per a study from JD Power, wealth management firms have been making huge investments in new advisor workstation technologies designed to aggregate market data, client information, account servicing tools and AI-powered analytics into a single interface. While the firms are investing heavily in technology, only 48% advisors find the technology their firm is currently using, to be valuable. While only 9% of advisors are using AI tools, the advisor satisfaction is 95 points higher on a 1000-point scale when they use AI tools. Advisors find a disconnect between the technology and the value derived from the technology.

This further necessitates the need for personalised solutions for advisors and an AI driven Advisor personalisation platform which provides curated insights to the firms. This helps in targeted & personalized services & support to advisors through the Advisor lifecycle, enabling optimal utilization of the firm’s resources and unlocking huge growth potential.

The firms that will understand the potential of data driven decision making for their advisor engagement and will start early adoption of such tools will thrive in these uncertain times and will emerge as a winner once the dust settles.

The magnitude of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has forced the world to come to a virtual halt, with a sharp negative impact on the economies worldwide. The last few weeks have seen one of the most brutal global equity collapse, spike in unemployment numbers, and negative GDP forecasts. With the crisis posing a major systemic financial risk, effective credit risk management in these times is the key imperative for the banks, fintech and lending institutions.

Expected spike in delinquencies and credit losses post COVID-19

The creditworthiness of banking customers for both retail and commercial portfolios has decreased drastically due to the sudden negative impact on their employment and income. In case of continuation of the epidemic for a longer-term period, the scenarios in terms of defaults and credit losses for banks could potentially be much higher than as observed in the global financial crisis of 2008.

Need for an up-to-date, agile and analytics driven credit decisioning framework:

The existing models that banks rely upon simply did not account for such a ‘black swan event’. The credit decisioning framework for banks based on existing risk models and business criteria would be suboptimal in assessing customer risk, putting the reliability of these models in doubt. There is an immediate need for banks to adapt new credit lending framework to quickly and effectively identify risks and make changes in their credit policies

Incedo’s risk management framework for the post COVID-19 world

To address the challenges thrown up by the COVID-19, it is important to assess the short, medium and long-term impact on bank’s credit portfolio risk and define a clear roadmap as a strategic response focusing on changes to risk management methodologies, credit risk models and existing policies.

We propose a six-step framework for banks and lending institutions which comprises of the following approaches.

COVID Risk Assessment & Early monitoring Systems

Banks and lending institutions should focus on control room efforts and carry out a rapid re-assessment of customer and portfolio risk. This should be based on COVID situational risk distress indicators and anomalies observed in customer behaviour post COVID-19. As an example, sudden spike in utilization for a customer, less or no credit of salary in payroll account, usage of cash advance facility by transactor persona could potentially be examples of increasing situational risk for a given customer. In the absence of real delinquencies (due to moratorium or payment holidays facility), such triggers should enable banks to understand customer’s changing profiles and create automated alerts around the same.

Credit risk tightening measures

Whether you are a chief risk officer of a bank or a credit risk practitioner, by now you would have heard many times that all your previous credit risk models and scorecards would not hold and validate any longer. While that is true, it has also been observed that directionally most of these models would still rank order with only a few exceptions. These exceptions or business over-rides can be captured through early monitoring signals and overlaid on top of existing risk scores as a very short term plan. Customers with a low risk score and situational risk deterioration based on early monitoring triggers are the segments where credit policy needs to be tightened. As the delinquencies start getting captured, banks should re-create these models and identify the most optimal cutoffs for credit decisioning.

Personalized Credit Interventions

There are still customers with superior credit worthiness waiting to borrow for their financial needs. It is very important for banks to discern such customers from those that have a low ability to payback. To do this, banks require personalized interventions to reduce risk exposure while ensuring an optimal customer experience through data-driven personalized interventions. Banks need to help customers with liquidity crunch through Government relief programs, bank loan re-negotiation, and settlement offers while building a better portfolio by sourcing credit to ‘good’ customers in the current low rate environment.

Models Re-design and Re-Calibration

A wait and watch approach for the next 2-3 months period to understand the shifts in customer profile and behavior is a precursor before re-designing the existing models. This would enable banks to better understand the effect of the crisis on customer profiles and make intelligent scenarios around the future trend for delinquencies. There would be a need to re-calibrate or re-design the existing models. Periodic re-monitoring of new models would be a must, given the expected economic volatility for at least next 6-12 months period.

Model Risk Management through Risk Governance and Rapid Model Monitoring

There is an urgent need for banks to identify and quantify the risks emerging due to the use of historical credit risk models and scorecards through Model monitoring. While the risk associated with credit products has increased, the delinquencies have not yet started getting captured in the bank’s database due to the payment holiday period facility introduced by govt’s of most of the countries. In such a situation, it is critical to design risk governance rules for new models that may not have information related to dependent variables (e.g. delinquency) captured accurately.

Portfolio Stress Tests aligned with dynamic macro economic scenarios

Banks and lending institutions need to leverage and further build on their stress testing practice by running dynamic macro-economic scenarios on a periodic basis. The stress testing practice has enabled banks in the US to improve their capital provisioning and the COVID crisis should further enable banks across the geographies to use the stress tests to guide their future roadmap depending on how their financials would fare under different scenarios and take remedial actions.

The execution of the above-mentioned framework should ensure that banks and fintech’s are able to respond to immediate priorities to protect the downside while emerging stronger as we enter the new normal of the credit lending marketplace.

Incedo is at the forefront of helping organizations transform the risk management post COVID-19 through advanced analytics, while supporting broader efforts to maximize risk adjusted returns.

Our team of credit risk experts and data scientists has enabled setting up the post COVID early monitoring system, heuristic post COVID risk scores, and COVID command centre for a couple of mid-tier US based banks over a period of last few weeks.

Learn more about how Incedo can help with credit risk management.